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Saturday, November 1, 2008

Nov. 5: North Carolina, poll estimation

After calculating the linear regression, and finding the formula for both candidates, I realized that on November fourth, Obama would win North Carolina, 49% to 48%.  The accuracy of this being correct was 45% for Obama, and 2% for McCain.  This led me to believe that my percentage was incorrect, but I still refused to lose faith in Obama.   Then finally, on November 5, we figured out that Obama did win North Carolina, 50% to 49%.  Obviously, this did not match my findings, but this came to no surprise because from the beginning, I knew the percentage of my findings were not exact.

All in all, in this 2008 election, North Carolina was a democratic state.   This rose Obama into a much higher position than McCain.  And although it was a democratic state this election, who knows what the future hides, for the statistics may change in the next election.  

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